IQLIM OʻZGARISHI SHAROITIDA QIZILQUM CHOʻLI EKOTIZIMI DINAMIKASINI MODELLASHTIRISHNING ILMIY-METODIK ASOSLARI
Keywords:
Qizilqum cho‘li, ekotizim dinamikasi, masofadan zondlash, GAT, RESTREND, GeoDetector, iqlim ssenariylari, yer degradatsiyasi, LST, integral modellashtirish.Abstract
Ushbu maqolada global iqlim o‘zgarishi va ortib borayotgan antropogen yuklama sharoitida Qizilqum cho‘li ekotizimida kechayotgan ekologik transformatsiyalar ва degradatsiya jarayonlarini baholashning ilmiy-metodologik asoslari tizimlashtirilgan. Tadqiqot doirasida sohadagi nufuzli xalqaro ilmiy manbalar sintez qilinib, cho‘l ekotizimi dinamikasini baholash uchun ko‘p faktorli Integral degradatsiya xavfi modeli (IDRM) konseptual arxitekturasi ishlab chiqilgan. Ekotizim parametrlarini baholashda nafaqat an’anaviy vegetatsiya indekslaridan (NDVI, SAVI), balki yer yuzasining termik rejimi (LST), tuproq-biofizik xususiyatlari (BSI), namlik stressi (NDMI) hamda gidroklimatik anomaliyalar (Precipitation, PET, Aridity Index) ko‘rsatkichlarining sinergik ta’siri asoslab berilgan. Tabiiy va inson omillarining ulushini miqdoriy differensiyalashda RESTREND algoritmi hamda GeoDetector modelining interpretatsion imkoniyatlari ochib berilgan. Taklif etilayotgan model 2000–2025-yillardagi retrospektiv dinamikani tahlil qilish hamda CMIP6 (SSP2-4.5 va SSP5-8.5) ssenariylari asosida 2030–2050-yillarga mo‘ljallangan istiqbolli geoprognostik xaritalarni yaratish imkonini beradi. Natijalar mintaqada yaylovlarni barqaror boshqarish ва ekologik monitoring tizimini (GEOMS) yo‘lga qo‘yishda fundamental asos bo‘lib xizmat qiladi.
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